Live & Learn: What the Dunning-Kruger Effect has done to America
by Kathy Tran Wilson
1In today’s fast information economy, many people believe they are more informed than ever. But, is the reality of that sentiment, true? Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to the Dunning-Kruger Effect. What is it? For those of you with the humility to admit they don’t know, let Google define it for you. “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task tend to overestimate their own competence, while high-ability individuals often underestimate theirs. This happens because those with low competence lack metacognitive skills to recognize their own shortcomings, leading them to believe they are performing better than they are.” Sound familiar?
We are being led by morons at the moment and it shows. The White House is being destroyed as I write this and it wasn't lost on me that where the Taliban failed on 9/11, Donald Trump succeeded. “Never Forget” takes on new meaning now. How did we get here? According to the Dunning-Kruger Effect, Low-competence individuals overestimate their ability because they lack the expertise to recognize their own mistakes. The skills needed to be good at something are the same skills needed to evaluate how good you are at it. On the other hand, High-competence individuals tend to underestimate their ability because they assume that tasks that are easy for them, are also easy for others. Sadly, for many entrepreneurs, this can lead to their downfall.
This is not an issue that society can see happening under the Trump Administration. It also happens with Progressives who become active and start to define what is acceptable or not. When these well-meaning people get a sense of legitimacy, they also get a little ridiculous. Nuance and humility are key here. I recently read an article about Dana White and his journey with the UFC (and later Powerslap). I was shocked to learn that a man whose industry is full of ego, toxic masculinity, and violence, was humble enough to take a small 9% stake of equity in the UFC. His investors, the two Fertitta brothers took 91%. They put in 100% of the money, and he would put in 100% in sweat equity. Usually, a partnership like this would earn Dana White closer to 33%, but for some reason, he was happy with 9%. It paid off. They bought UFC in 2001 for $2 million and then sold it in 2016 for $4 billion. (I never thought I would learn a lesson about humility from Dana White, but here we are.)
What else did I take away from this business history? That high-competence individuals mistake, of assuming that tasks that are easy for them are easy for everyone, is how we got to this point in the world. Logic, reasoning, expertise, and a long work history, was expected to prevail in our Democratic process. We thought it was easy to spot corruption and stop it. We thought voting would be an easy solution. Instead, we have to explain the basic foundation of what a Nazi is, what a Dictator is, and what a lie is.
Who pays? Sadly, the largest share of taxes paid are not by the highest earners that can afford it. It is also not paid by the lowest earners. The winners or rather losers, that get to shoulder the tax burden of the United States of America are the households that earn $250K-$500K per year. Those earners pay 45% of their income to taxes. Most of those people are high-competence individuals that “are more aware of the complexities and nuances of the subject, making them less confident in their relative position compared to their peers. I am applying this specifically to politics. Most of these earners are Moderates, what we sometimes call hybrids.
I am asking those of us who pay the most taxes, to become more vocal than our peers that may have good intentions; but, lack the humility to see the nuances needed to move forward as a nation. If Dana White, can have humility on his own worth, so can we.
